We gave Covid 19 the keys to our house 81 days ago, how are things going?

It is 08.00 am on Friday 20 November 2020, eighty-one days from the start of the school year.  

The cheery thing to report

Child has responded extremely well to school being her social centre as well as her education centre, more than justifying the need for mum and dad to accept the increased Covid 19 risks of letting her to back to school. She loves it so much, she now wants to go to school on Saturdays and Sundays as well! Not sure if this is a big vote of confidence in her teachers, or for the restoration of her social mental wellbeing.

AND, as for Mum and dad, they have now finally got their act together to handle all the additional ups and downs of the latest school regulations on masks, the additional schoolbag isolation and protection procedures on the assumption that it is an obvious hiding place for Covid 19; and to take comfort from the family decision to extend the in-house lockdown programme at least into the new year, no matter what the French authorities declare.  Life feels stable again. It insulates mum and dad from the dreaded fact that we are all now living in a mad, mad, mad Covid 19 infested world.

The not-so-cheery thing to report

The new school year was launched 81 days ago. Time to ask Mr Google the question, ‘How many primary schools in France, and primary school classes, have had to close due to Covid 19?’

What mum and dad thought would be straightforward to find out (easy, peasy, lemon squeezy, as Child would say) turned out to be anything but! Having drawn an absolute blank at their first attempt, they asked for help from their family and friend network. Three days later, some school news at last – not from any official government websites, but, believe or not, from a website for ladies! (www.journaldesfemmes.fr) quoting government sources. The school situation at 20 November was:

• 20 school structures (13 schools, 4 middle schools and 3 high schools) are closed as well as 142 classes
• 13,870 students and 2,011 school staff have tested positive to Covid-19 in the last 7 days (the school unions are protesting that these figures are a gross underestimate

These closures and Covid 19 results occurred against the background totals of some 7 million pupils attending around 45,000 French state primary schools across France. So, snapshot figures at a point in time look excellent when the total number of pupils and schools are taken into account.

Mum and dad’s assessment: Looks very encouraging at first glance if one can trust the declared number of school and class closures (???) and big questions around the accuracy of the Covid 19 positive rates, as contested by the teacher unions. Needs more digging!

The French lockdown, 21 days on

Number of daily new Covid 19 cases and deaths as at 20 November?   

Overall, from 3 January to 20 November, there have been 2,017,499 cases and 47,917 deaths in France. The latest daily lockdown results for new confirmed cases and deaths, courtesy of the France WHO dashboard, are as follows:

THE DAILY LOCKDOWN RESULTS FOR NEW CONFIRMED COVID 19
CASES AND DEATHS

WEEK 1	Oct 31	Nov 1	Nov 2	Nov 3	Nov 4	Nov 5	Nov 6	TOTALS
New cases	45,631	32,530	49,290	52,156	36,254	39,807	58,017	313,685
Deaths	531	223	231	411	854	386	363	2,999
WEEK 2	Nov 7	Nov 8	Nov 9	Nov 10	Nov 11	Nov 12	Nov 13	TOTALS
New cases	60,235	86,794	38,619	19,571	22,166	34,971	32,978	295,334
Deaths	827	304	270	546	1,220	318	425	3,910
WEEK 3	Nov 14	Nov 15	Nov 16	Nov 17	Nov 18	Nov 19	Nov 20	TOTALS
New cases	23,620	32,059	27,123	9,094	45,498	27,667	21,130	186,191
Deaths	931	354	302	504	1219	413	429	4,152

New cases: There were over 600,000 new cases in the first 2 weeks of lockdown, and a further 186,191 in week 3

New deaths: There were 11,061 new deaths in the first 3 weeks of lockdown

Mum and dad’s assessment of the numbers: Nothing good in these figures so far. They reinforce the fact that the lockdown started too late and confirms that their personal decision to continue the lockdown into the new year as the correct one. They suspect that the ‘men in charge’ will chicken out of extending the lockdown to provide protection over the Christmas and New Year period, it is too good an opportunity to let it go to waste –  ‘C’mon, time to loosen up a bit, just enjoy yourselves, you deserve it, and the economy needs your money!’

Next, let’s look at some pretty graphs to give us all a new dimension to think about

Here are screenshots taken of the France trends in their 14 day Covid 19 cases and death notification rates and their weekly Covid 19 testing data, courtesy of the ECDC tracking programme:

There are a number of interesting features to think about and work out the implications for us all:

• New cases: there was a steep rise in the numbers throughout October and into the first 2 weeks of November, up from 535 per 100,000 to 1000 per 100,000. The following week, the was a steep drop in the numbers, down from 1000 per 100,000 to 875 per 100,000.
• New deaths: the rate of deaths started to rise towards the end of October and are continuing to rise in November, showing the beginning of a new peak.
• Testing data: the steep rise in the rate of new cases to 1000 per 100,000 coincided with the steep rise in the rate of testing to 2,400 per 100,000. The steep drop in the rate of new case to 875 per 100,000 coincided with the steep drop in testing data, down to 1,550 per 100,000.

Hmm, what’s this then? Two graphs, one measuring the total number of tests carried out, the other measuring the total positive results of these tests – the time periods are the same, the shape of their curves are the same. It is not a giant leap of analysis to suggest that this relationship shows that:

‘if one were to decide to reduce the number of tests being performed, for whatever reason, it would automatically reduce the number of positive results by the same proportion’.

And meanwhile

• Child’s seventh birthday in the middle of a lockdown

So, the Covid 19 friendly birthday plan is all set, with one big, strange proviso – there must be no rain, snow, thunderstorms, tornados, or the like. First time ever mum and dad have declared the weather is in control of the birthday’s destiny!  Better check the horoscopes as well.

• About our programme of general immunity improvement  in our state of readiness:

All research is suspended until mum and dad’s brains recover from the lockdown stress and there is time to allocate to thinking sensibly and cogently. 

Finally, after 81 days of exposure to school, what about Mum and Dad – are they coping?:

It has been another [Yes, they’re coping, and NO, they’re not coping] kind of a week.

The Covid 19 stress bandwagon continues to tease all humans gently and roughly and toughly. The virus clangs, bangs, thumps and cascades its way mercilessly through all the emotional whirlpools of the human psyche as it rides on the spittal winds of human misbehaviour, dances gaily on the surges and hides quietly in the troughs, all the time wallowing like a giant viral hippopotamus in the confused cerebral muddy thinking it has created.Yes, it’s really difficult at times to stay cool under fire from a weapon that can play havoc with your conscious and unconscious nervous system all the time, and kill or maim you at any time.

By John Saunders

World Health Communication Associates (WHCA) & INSPIRIT Creatives UG NGO,
MediaWise and MediaFocusUK

Strengthening connections
while keeping distance

News You Can Use

We are all vulnerable to this virus. This is a unique time for our communities all over the world as we work to combat this massive global threat. This blog aims to collect and share your stories and reflections that can help others to cope, thrive and build resilience…

Our communities are at different stages of response in different parts of the world. We can learn a lot from each other. Building on World Health Organization and other evidence-based guidance, this blog will gather and disseminate stories that inform, inspire and hopefully strengthen social connectiveness while we all practice physical distancing.

We invite you to contribute. At present we are looking for stories in the following areas:

May the force be with all of us.

Sabrina, Mike, Steve, Tuuli and Franklin for the Connecting Communities team

BLOG: https://www.inspiritcreatives.com/coronavirus-connecting-communities
Email: cccov19@gmail.com
See: https://www.whcaonline.org | https://www.inspiritcreatives.com/humanity
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12385075/ | Twitter: @connecting_comm
News: https://cccovid19.org/corona_virus/

Disclaimer – We try to include stories that respect World Health Organisation COVID19 guidance. Links take you to full published stories. Our Connecting Communities team screens and selects stories but can not guarantee accuracy of reporting and mentions of any products does not indicate endorsement.

While we grieve for the tremendous loss of lives in so many countries, we can see and feel that the need to connect communities and share learning grows everyday. Please attach your comments and stories to this blog or send them to cccov19@gmail.com or attach them to this blog. We welcome stories in all languages and from all countries. Here are some first examples of stories and links. Send us yours and make this blog useful.